Ecuador's Presidential Choice
We are weeks away from a historical vote in Ecuador. I used a Southern Pulse-developed research companion to help me pull together a high-level flyover for investors interested in the outcome.
Ecuador's next presidential election presents a stark choice for foreign investors, with Daniel Noboa and Luisa González offering contrasting visions for the country's investment climate. Against a challenging backdrop where FDI plummeted 57% to US$380 million in 2023—its lowest level since 2010—and with sovereign risk ratings approaching 2,000 points, the election outcome could significantly influence Ecuador's ability to attract international capital.
Noboa's administration has demonstrated a more explicitly pro-business stance, implementing concrete measures to attract foreign investment. His recent proposals for free trade zones, tax incentives, and international arbitration reforms signal a commitment to creating a more investor-friendly environment. Particularly notable is his support for the mining sector, where he has actively courted Canadian investors while promoting "sustainable mining" initiatives. His administration's focus on reducing bureaucratic hurdles and maintaining dollarization has resonated with the international investment community.
In contrast, González's approach presents more uncertainties for potential investors. Her association with Rafael Correa's economic policies, which emphasized stronger state control of strategic sectors, has raised concerns among international investors. While she has attempted to distinguish herself from her predecessor, her platform's emphasis on increased state intervention and more restrictive approaches to extractive industries suggests a potentially more challenging environment for foreign capital.
The stark difference in regional investment flows—Ecuador's $270 million in FDI compared to Peru's $30 billion—underscores the country's challenge in attracting international capital. Both candidates will face significant obstacles, including persistent security concerns, infrastructure deficiencies, and potential social unrest. However, Noboa's market-oriented approach and demonstrated commitment to investor protection appears more likely to attract foreign direct investment in the short to medium term.
The ultimate success of either candidate in attracting FDI will depend not only on their stated policies but also on their ability to address Ecuador's fundamental challenges: a fiscal deficit approaching 5% of GDP, ongoing security concerns, and the need for significant infrastructure improvements. The April 2025 runoff election thus represents a critical juncture for Ecuador's investment climate and economic future.
The indigenous vote as kingmaker
The upcoming April 13 runoff election between incumbent President Daniel Noboa and challenger Luisa González of Revolución Ciudadana has set the stage for a potentially decisive role by Ecuador's indigenous voters. Following a first round that resulted in a technical tie between the two candidates, neither achieving the required 50% threshold or 40% with a 10-point advantage, attention has turned to the approximately 5% of voters who supported indigenous leader Leonidas Iza.
Recent polling data from late 2024 had suggested a tight race, with Comunicaliza showing Noboa at 27.5% and González at 26.7%, while Informe Confidencial indicated slightly higher numbers at 34% and 32% respectively. These predictions proved accurate, as the first round indeed produced a narrow margin between the candidates.
The indigenous movement, led by CONAIE under Iza's leadership, finds itself in a complex position. Relations with Noboa have been strained, particularly following his January 2025 state of emergency declaration and controversial security policies. Meanwhile, González's association with former president Rafael Correa's political movement presents its own complications, given CONAIE's historical conflicts with Correismo.
Key issues for indigenous voters include mining policies, environmental concerns, economic inequality, and land rights. These concerns have historically transcended traditional political divides, with CONAIE demonstrating significant mobilization power through protests against both right and left-wing administrations.
The geographic and demographic divide between wealthier Ecuadorians in Quito and black and indigenous Ecuadorians along the coast and in Guayaquil adds another layer of complexity to the electoral dynamics. As both candidates vie for approximately 20% of voters who supported neither candidate in the first round, the indigenous bloc's support could prove crucial in determining Ecuador's next president.
As of February 20, 2025, Iza has not yet publicly declared support for either candidate, leaving both campaigns in suspense and highlighting the continued importance of indigenous political power in Ecuadorian national politics. The ultimate decision of CONAIE and its supporters could well determine the outcome of this closely contested election.
Balancing Act: Noboa's Policy Priorities for Ecuador's Next Chapter
If Daniel Noboa secures victory in Ecuador's April 2025 runoff election, his administration is poised to pursue a multifaceted domestic agenda that builds upon initiatives launched during his current term. At the forefront of his priorities is the continuation of his hardline security approach, characterized by the controversial designation of organized crime groups as terrorist organizations and the maintenance of military involvement in domestic security operations, particularly in the crime-affected coastal provinces.
On the economic front, Noboa's administration is expected to implement a complex VAT reform featuring both temporary and permanent increases, alongside a targeted reduction in fuel subsidies aimed at achieving a 25% cost reduction. These fiscal measures will likely be accompanied by pro-business policies, though these may face challenges from environmental advocates and indigenous groups.
Social programs constitute a significant portion of Noboa's platform, representing 45.6% of his stated priorities. His administration aims to balance economic reactivation in rural areas with the maintenance of welfare programs, while simultaneously pursuing fiscal discipline. This delicate equilibrium will be crucial for maintaining political stability and social peace.
Environmental policy, accounting for 24.7% of his platform priorities, presents another complex challenge. While Noboa has acknowledged the reality of climate change, his administration must navigate the tension between environmental protection and economic development, particularly in regions dependent on extractive industries.
The success of these initiatives will largely depend on Noboa's ability to maintain his coalition in the National Assembly and manage opposition from powerful actors like CONAIE. His administration faces the particular challenge of implementing fuel subsidy reforms without triggering the kind of social unrest that has derailed similar attempts by previous governments. The first few months in his new administration post elections would be crucial in determining whether Noboa can transform these policy priorities into concrete achievements while maintaining political stability.
Balancing Correismo and Change: González's Vision for Ecuador
If Luisa González emerges victorious in Ecuador's April 2025 runoff election, her administration is poised to implement a domestic agenda that echoes elements of Rafael Correa's presidency while attempting to address contemporary challenges. Social programs stand at the forefront of her platform, comprising 44.7% of her stated priorities, with an emphasis on expanding welfare initiatives and tackling economic inequality through state-led solutions.
González's approach to security, representing 18.1% of her platform, signals a potential shift from Noboa's militarized strategy. Her administration would likely pursue alternative methods to address gang violence and organized crime, though specific details remain unclear. This security pivot could mark one of the most significant departures from current policies.
In the energy and resource sectors, González faces the challenge of balancing Ecuador's dependence on extractive industries with growing environmental concerns. Her platform promises "responsible" exploitation while pledging to accelerate the transition to clean energy and protect indigenous territories. This dual approach reflects broader tensions between development needs and environmental protection that have long characterized Ecuadorian politics.
Environmental policy features prominently in González's agenda, with specific commitments to address environmental inequalities affecting vulnerable communities and update conservation management plans for protected areas. These environmental commitments will need to be balanced against her economic development goals.
Perhaps most significantly, González's administration would likely herald a return to stronger state control of strategic sectors, reminiscent of Correa-era policies. However, she faces the delicate task of implementing these changes while maintaining her own political identity, having stated she would not pardon the former president if elected.
Regional Implications: Ecuador's Election Through South American Eyes
Ecuador's April 2025 presidential runoff carries significant implications for South American regional dynamics, with both Daniel Noboa and Luisa González presenting distinct visions for Ecuador's role in the regional order. From the perspective of neighboring countries, particularly Colombia, the election outcome could substantially influence regional cooperation on critical issues ranging from security to economic integration.
Noboa's presidency would position Ecuador as part of a growing counterweight to South America's left-leaning governments, aligning with Argentina's Milei and Paraguay's Peña administrations. His business-friendly approach and strong alignment with U.S. interests suggest a continuation of current security cooperation frameworks, particularly in combating transnational criminal organizations. This stance has garnered attention from regional leaders focused on maintaining robust anti-narcotics efforts and strengthening trade relationships.
Conversely, González's potential victory could signal a return to Ecuador's previous alignment with the region's progressive governments. Her administration would likely find natural allies in Colombia's Petro administration and other left-leaning governments, potentially strengthening regional cooperation through shared ideological perspectives. However, her resistance to U.S. influence in regional affairs could complicate existing security arrangements and diplomatic initiatives.
Both candidates must navigate complex regional challenges, particularly regarding border security with Colombia and transnational crime. The success of either administration will largely depend on their ability to maintain effective regional cooperation while pursuing their distinct policy agendas. Ecuador's role in regional organizations and economic integration initiatives, including the Pacific Alliance, hangs in the balance.
The election's outcome will contribute to the ongoing regional power dynamics between left and right-leaning governments in South America. For neighboring countries, particularly those essential to Ecuador's success, the winner's ability to deliver positive outcomes will depend not just on their stated policies, but on their capacity to maintain productive diplomatic relationships while addressing shared challenges in security, trade, and political cooperation.
Trump's Ecuador Calculus: Washington's Stake in the Runoff
As Ecuador approaches its April 2025 presidential runoff, the Trump administration's preferences appear to align strongly with Daniel Noboa's candidacy over that of Luisa González. This preference stems from multiple strategic considerations that reflect Trump's broader approach to Latin American relations and his administration's regional priorities.
Noboa represents an ideological ally in Trump's effort to build a conservative coalition across Latin America, joining the ranks of Argentina's Milei and Paraguay's Peña. His hardline security approach, particularly the designation of organized crime groups as terrorist organizations, mirrors Trump's own executive orders regarding cartels. This alignment on security matters is particularly significant given Trump's emphasis on combating drug trafficking and organized crime in the region.
From a regional strategic perspective, Noboa's presidency would strengthen the U.S.-aligned bloc in South America at a time when Trump seeks to counter Chinese influence in the hemisphere. His pro-business stance and commitment to reducing state control in strategic sectors aligns with Trump's transactional approach to foreign policy and preference for market-oriented leadership in the region.
However, regional experts caution that Trump's "America First" approach could limit the depth of any meaningful cooperation, regardless of who wins the election. The administration's narrow focus on migration and drug trafficking might overshadow other potential areas of bilateral cooperation, with some analysts warning that Trump "offers nothing to Latin America" beyond purely transactional relationships.
The preference for Noboa should be viewed within the context of Trump's broader regional strategy, which prioritizes building a network of ideologically aligned leaders who can support U.S. interests in containing both traditional security threats and growing Chinese influence. Yet the effectiveness of this strategy may be limited by Trump's tendency to view international relationships primarily through the lens of immediate U.S. interests rather than long-term partnership building.
Strategic Priorities: China's Ecuador Playbook
As Ecuador approaches its April 2025 presidential runoff, China's approach reflects a sophisticated strategy that transcends the immediate electoral outcome. While Beijing might find ideological familiarity with González's leftist platform, recent patterns suggest China's priorities in Ecuador are driven by pragmatic considerations rather than political alignment, with a clear focus on protecting and expanding its substantial economic interests over the next five years.
China's strategic roadmap in Ecuador centers on five key priorities, beginning with the implementation of their recently ratified Free Trade Agreement from February 2024. Beijing aims to build upon its position as Ecuador's second-largest South American trading partner, with non-oil exports already reaching USD5.3 billion in 2023. This trade relationship underpins broader ambitions in resource security, particularly in mining and oil sectors, where projects like the Mirador mine represent significant Chinese investments.
Infrastructure and technology integration form another crucial pillar of China's strategy, with particular emphasis on "safe cities" surveillance projects and telecommunications infrastructure. These initiatives serve both commercial and strategic purposes, allowing China to establish technological standards and systems dependencies that could prove difficult to reverse.
Beijing's regional positioning through Ecuador represents a sophisticated counterbalance to U.S. influence, supported by cultural exchanges and expanding security cooperation. Financial leverage, through both existing debt relationships and evolving investment mechanisms, provides China with significant influence regardless of who wins the presidency.
However, China faces notable challenges in executing this strategy. Ecuador ranks third globally in human rights complaints against Chinese investors, while environmental protests and labor relations issues at Chinese-operated facilities create ongoing tensions. These challenges, combined with U.S. counter-influence efforts, suggest that China's approach to either Noboa or González would prioritize stability and protection of existing investments over ideological alignment.
The next five years will likely see China pursuing these priorities through a pragmatic, non-ideological approach that emphasizes economic engagement while carefully managing political relationships. This strategy reflects Beijing's broader pattern in Latin America of maintaining "all-weather strategic partnerships" that transcend political transitions, suggesting that China is prepared to work effectively with either candidate to advance its regional interests.
Ecuador 2025: Democracy, Development, and Global Powers
Ecuador's April 2025 presidential runoff between Daniel Noboa and Luisa González represents more than a simple electoral contest—it embodies a crucial moment for Ecuador's democratic trajectory and its position within an evolving global order. The election's outcome will influence not only domestic policies around security, economic reform, and social programs but also Ecuador's relationships with major global powers and regional neighbors.
Noboa's business-friendly, security-focused approach and González's state-centered, social welfare emphasis present distinct visions for addressing Ecuador's pressing challenges, from rampant organized crime to economic inequality. The indigenous vote, representing approximately 5% of the electorate, could prove decisive in determining which vision prevails.
Meanwhile, international stakeholders maintain keen interest in the outcome: Trump's administration clearly favors Noboa's alignment with U.S. regional priorities, while China demonstrates characteristic pragmatism, preparing to advance its substantial economic and strategic interests regardless of the winner. As Ecuador approaches this critical juncture, the choice between candidates will shape not only the nation's domestic trajectory but also its role in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape where U.S.-China competition, regional integration, and the challenge of organized crime converge to test the resilience of Latin American democracy.
Source list:
Ecuador 2025 Sources:
https://piedepagina.mx/?p=157717
https://periodismodeinvestigacion.com/?p=18160
https://dialogo-americas.com/?p=55783
https://revanellis.com/trump-la-amenaza-china-y-los-grandes-desafios-de-america-latina-como-sera-el-panorama-global-en-2025.html
Strategic Priorities Sources:
https://dialogo-americas.com/?p=55783
https://planv.com.ec/articulo_plan_v/ecuador-el-tercer-pais-del-mundo-con-mas-denuncias-ddhh-contra-inversionistas/
https://dialogo-americas.com/?p=32043
https://freedomhouse.org/report/beijing-global-media-influence/2022/authoritarian-expansion-power-democratic-resilience
Trump’s Ecuador Calculus Sources:
https://www.elcomercio.pe/opinion/columnistas/el-efecto-trump-y-las-elecciones-peruanas-por-diana-seminario-noticia/
https://apublica.org/?p=180274
https://elpais.com/america/2025-02-10/la-primavera-de-nayib-bukele-con-donald-trump.html
https://insightcrime.org/news/analysis/us-report-on-alternative-drug-smuggling-tactics-undermines-border-wall-logic/
https://revanellis.com/trump-la-amenaza-china-y-los-grandes-desafios-de-america-latina-como-sera-el-panorama-global-en-2025.html
Regional Implications Sources:
https://revanellis.com/2024-annual-estimate-of-the-strategic-security-environment-central-and-south-america-and-the-caribbean.html
https://razonpublica.com/?p=62741
https://news.mongabay.com/?p=293979
Balancing Correismo Sources:
https://news.mongabay.com/?p=293979
https://periodismodeinvestigacion.com/?p=17846
https://periodismodeinvestigacion.com/?p=17620
Balancing Act Sources:
https://periodismodeinvestigacion.com/?p=18160
https://news.mongabay.com/?p=293979
https://piedepagina.mx/?p=157665
https://periodismodeinvestigacion.com/?p=17846
Indigenous Vote Sources:
https://piedepagina.mx/?p=157717
https://periodismodeinvestigacion.com/?p=18160
https://freedomhouse.org/countries/freedom-world/scores
https://news.mongabay.com/?p=293979
https://piedepagina.mx/?p=157665
Investment Climate Sources:
https://www.cepal.org/en/publications/80565-foreign-direct-investment-latin-america-and-caribbean-2024
https://planv.com.ec/articulo_plan_v/daniel-noboa-promovio-mas-mineria-canada-pesar-protestas-comunidades/
https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/0f1c392e-0fcb-4ed7-965b-5d0115751883