El Señor Presidente
Bukele's dream of El Salvador's future could easily become the country's nightmare
In 1932, Guatemalan literary genius Miguel Angel Asturias published El Señor Presidente – a novel about an unnamed president in an unnamed country. Nearly a century later, this novel is still regarded as a seminal work of what the historic Latin American strongman president feels like.
Today, in early 2024, Nayib Bukele is what the modern day Latin American strongman president looks like. Over the next five years, during Bukele’s second term, we will see whether or not Bukele will evolve into El Señor Presidente, become something better, or something worse.
The period of time between the end of World War II and the end of the Cold War defined an indelible image of the Latin American strongman, known as the Caudillo. It is the figure of a military leader atop a horse in black boots and a green military uniform, with dark sunglasses, a mustache, and a determined look on his face — as seen from someone standing on the ground, looking up.
In Central American history, the Caudillo is the military. He is portrayed as violent and ruthless. He is Machiavellian. He will stop at nothing to achieve his goals. This is the dark side.
The lighter side sees a leader focused on the greater good, one who is willing to make necessary sacrifices to improve his lot and that of his supporters, and by extension, his people. In the 20th Century, Central America's Caudillos were men of action, convinced that their place in history was – more often than not – one of setting the country on a path toward prosperity, toward some form of lasting Democracy. They dreamt of the future and were determined to make it real.
In Honduras, Guatemala, and El Salvador, the Caudillos were mostly men who wrestled control of the country to point it back in the “right” direction – a future version of the country often defined by U.S. foreign policy. Dozens of books have been written about this collective experience that Central Americans have suffered at the hands of the men who rule in the name of Democracy and the greater good. Few, however, have chronicled the misery and mystery of the Caudillo like El Señor Presidente.
Against that literary backdrop, we find the modern version of Central America’s strongman, Nayib Bukele. On the outside, Bukele looks and acts a lot like his predecessors. He is a strong communicator. He is charismatic. He is Machiavellian. He is ruthless in pursuit of his goals. He has gone to war against street gangs in his country, and on the back of that success he has flexed and bowed the Democratic framework installed in El Salvador to manipulate the rules and run again for office.
All of these qualities bring forward a reflection of El Salvador’s Caudillos of the past. Yet there are two very important contrasting truths. First, he is beloved. Second, he walks a path toward Beijing not Washington.
Last night’s election – any allegation of fraud aside – confirms that Bukele might have won more than 80% of the vote. A landslide by any definition. Historic. And why not? On the surface, this troubled Central American nation evolved from the most dangerous in the world to the most safe in the Western Hemisphere in a very short time.
Many locals, who have long suffered extortion, forced recruitment, and similar insults, could rightly call it a miraculous accomplishment. It is a massive improvement in the quality of life of every Salvadorian. From the looks of it, Salvadorians, who know better than the rest of us what Bukele and his team have had to do to improve public security, have basically said, “keep doing what you’re doing.”
Their collective vote says bending human rights in El Salvador is okay as long as we, the people, feel safe.
Popularity aside, there are some costs. Some 1.7% of the population, or 75,000 Salvadorians are behind bars — more than anywhere else in the word per capita. The question is not if this incarceration rate is effective. Clearly it is. The question is if this incarceration rate is sustainable. Running a prison system this large, and growing, is an expensive endeavor.
So are other items on the agenda, specifically health, education and infrastructure. While an increase in public security will surely boost tourism, improving the outlook for economic growth, Bukele’s plans for bitcoin bonds and more loans from China are hardly the sustainable sources of foreign exchange he needs to continue funding his – admittedly – big vision for the future of his country.
Bukele is not looking to Washington; admittedly, the track record there is not positive. El Salvador’s history suggests that he should be wary of enticing offers from the United States. No, Bukele looks to China, a patron state that holds no requirements for human rights, for the rule of law, or for Democracy.
The further Bukele pushes his agenda, the more likely he is to fall into the same trap that ensnared Hugo Chavez and now Maduro in Venezuela, that ensnared Daniel Ortega and his wife in Nicaragua, that previously ensnared Bolivia’s Evo Morales and Ecuador’s Rafael Correa. Sourcing cash from a patron that holds no accountability for what’s best for the country and its people will eventually lead the leadership to harden, to push past what the people want and need, and, finally, to bring the country to a place where the collective stops saying “do what you need to do, just keep us safe,” and asks “what happened?”
Bukele today is riding high. He has laudable goals and has achieved much. His people love him. He is a regional inspiration. There are many paths before him. One of them is treacherous. In time, it may become the most attractive.
Bukele may today be the region’s “coolest dictator” but with every decision he makes, will he strengthen the dictator, at the expense of being cool?
In El Señor Presidente on page 63 at the bottom, Mr. Asturias wrote: “Whether you’re guilty or not is irrelevant…what matters is whether you’re in favor or not with the President; it’s worse to be an innocent man frowned on by the Government than a guilty one!”
Bukele’s victory today is sweet. Let us hope that his dream for El Salvador does not turn into a nightmare for Salvadorians, where innocent men out of favor have more to fear from the President than guilty men do.